Publications (Selection)

Articles (peer-reviewed)

• Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth. Evidence from Polling Effects around Electoral Thresholds (with Christina Gahn). 2026. Journal of Politics Online First, 1-37. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Policy Over Votes. Why Extreme Governments Respond to Their Supporters (with Lawrence Ezrow & Timothy Hellwig). 2026. West European Politics 49 (5), 1176-1202. [Article] [Replication Material]


• The Bombing of Hospitals and Rebel Responses in Civil War. Evidence from Syria (with Regine Schwab & Samer Massoud). 2025. Journal of Conflict Resolution Online First, 1-29. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Comparative Vote Switching. A New Framework for Studying Dynamic Multi-Party Competition (with Denis Cohen & Tarik Abou-Chadi). 2024. Journal of Politics 86 (2), 597-607. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Should We Include Margins of Error in Public Opinion Polls? (with Christina Gahn). 2024. European Journal of Political Research 63 (3), 1082-1107. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Does Right-Wing Violence Affect Public Support for Radical Right Parties? Evidence from Germany (with Miku Matsunaga). 2023. Comparative Political Studies 56 (14), 2269-2305. [Article] [Replication Material]
• James Caporaso Award
• Does Accommodation Work? Mainstream Party Strategies and the Success of Radical Right Parties (with Denis Cohen & Tarik Abou-Chadi). 2023. Political Science Research and Methods 11 (1), 172-179. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Voter Turnout and Party Responsiveness (with Lawrence Ezrow). 2023. British Journal of Political Science 53 (1), 85-103. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Putting Electoral Competition Where it Belongs: Comparing Vote-Based Measures of Electoral Competition (with Aiko Wagner). 2023. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 33 (2), 210-227. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Becoming Part of the Gang? Established and Nonestablished Populist Parties and the Role of External Efficacy (with Aiko Wagner). 2021. Party Politics 27 (1), 161-173. [Article] [Replication Material]


• The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (with Tarik Abou-Chadi). 2020. British Journal of Political Science 50 (4), 829-847. [Article] [Replication Material]
• WZB Best Paper Award
• Appearing Moderate or Radical? Radical Left Party Success and the Two-Dimensional Political Space. 2020. West European Politics 43 (7), 1365-1387. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Shifting Welfare Policy Positions: The Impact of Radical Right Populist Party Success Beyond Migration Politics (with Heiko Giebler). 2020. Representation 56 (3), 331-348. [Article] [Replication Material]
• Representation Best Paper Prize - Honorable Mention
• Women’s Participation in Peace Negotiations and the Durability of Peace (with Jana Krause & Piia Bränfors). 2018. International Interactions 44 (6), 985-1016. [Article] [Replication Material]


• Attraktion und Repulsion: AnhängerInnen rechts- und linkspopulistischer Parteien im europäischen Vergleich (with Aiko Wagner & Marcus Spittler). 2017. Leviathan 18, 106-137. [Article] [Replication Material]

Articles in Edited Volumes

• The Supply Side. Mainstream Right Party Policy Positions in a Changing Political Space in Western Europe (with Tarik Abou-Chadi). 2021. In: Riding the Populist Wave. Europe’s Mainstream Right in Crisis, Eds. Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser & Tim Bale. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 67-90. [Article]


• Strukturiert sozioökonomische Ungleichheit die Legitimitätswahrnehmungen und Wahlentscheidungen der Bürgerinnen? 2020. In: Legitimitätsprobleme. Zur Lage der Demokratie in Deutschland, Eds. Sascha Kneip, Wolfgang Merkel & Bernhard Weßels. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 125-152. [Article]


• Crisis of Democracy? Views of Experts and Citizens (with Wolfgang Merkel). 2018. In: Democracy and Crisis. Challenges in Turbulent Times, Eds. Wolfgang Merkel & Sascha Kneip. Cham: Springer, 31-47. [Article]


• Maintaining a Reproducible Database on Political Parties, Elections, and Governments (with Dag Tanneberg). 2018. In: The Practice of Reproducible Research: Case Studies and Lessons from the Data-Intensive Sciences, Eds. Justin Kitzes, Daniel Turek & Fatma Deniz. Oakland: University of California Press, Online Version. [Article]


• Krise der Demokratie? Ansichten von Experten und Bürgern (with Wolfgang Merkel). 2015. In: Demokratie und Krise. Zum schwierigen Verhältnis von Theorie und Empirie, Eds. Wolfgang Merkel. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 45-65. [Article]

Working Papers

• Privatizations Spark Socialist Backlash: Evidence from East Germany’s Transformation (with Anselm Hager, Moritz Hennicke & Lukas Mergele). CESifo Working Papers, No. 10030, 1-47. [Article]

Blog Posts and Commentaries

• Politische Lage nach der Wahl. Die AfD – Von der ostdeutschen Protestpartei zur gesamtdeutschen Herausforderung . Fachzeitschrift "Außerschulische Bildung", 2025-12-01. [Article]


• Rechtsaußenpositionen im Parteienwettbewerb. Normalisierung und Mainstreaming . Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 2025-05-07. [Article]


• How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? (with Christina Gahn). The Loop. ECPR's Political Science Blog, 2024-02-27. [Article]


• Die Macht der Sonntagsfrage. Sollten wir über ihre Regulierung nachdenken? (with Christina Gahn). Verfassungsblog, 2023-12-21. [Article]


• Right-Wing Violence and the Persistence of Far-Right Popularity (with Miku Matsunaga). The Loop. ECPR's Political Science Blog, 2023-11-20. [Article]


• Rechts nur noch die Wand? (with Denis Cohen & Tarik Abou-Chadi). Verfassungsblog, 2023-02-07. [Article]


• Copiar a la extrema derecha no ayuda a los partidos tradicionales y puede potenciarla (with Denis Cohen & Tarik Abou-Chadi). El Diario, 2022-04-18. [Article]


• Copying the far right doesn’t help mainstream parties. But it can boost the far right (with Denis Cohen & Tarik Abou-Chadi). The Guardian, 2022-04-13. [Article]


• The Ups and Downs of the Far Left – When do Radical Left Parties Succeed? . Agenda Pública - Analistas de Actualidad., 2021-11-04. [Article]


• This time it’s the economy. Mapping the issues that produced the German federal election result (with Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio, Heiko Giebler). LSE EUROPP Blog, 2021-10-01. [Article]


• Popular populists: Do anti-establishment voters stick with populist parties after they enter the mainstream? (with Aiko Wagner). LSE EUROPP Blog, 2019-08-13. [Article]


• Radical Right Success and Mainstream Parties’ Anti-Immigrant Policy Shifts (with Tarik Abou-Chadi). Democratic Audit UK Blog, 2018-07-24. [Article]

Book Reviews

• Review of “Strategien gegen Rechtspopulismus? Der Umgang mit der AfD in den Landesparlamenten” 2021. German Politics 31 (4), 626-627. [Article]

Software

• R package: nuts. Convert European Regional Data in R (with Moritz Hennicke). 2024. R package version 1.1.0., https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10885973. [Vignette] [Github Repository] [Manual] [CRAN]

Data Sets

• PPEG - Political Parties, Presidents, Elections and Governments. Versions: 2022v1-2025v1, WZB Berlin (with Raphael Döring & Julia Stoppe). [Link to Data]


• The Manifesto Data Collection. Versions: 2018b-2021a, Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR) (with Andrea Volkens, Pola Lehmann, Theres Matthieß, Nicolas Merz, Sven Regel & Bernhard Weßels). [Link to Data]


• Manifesto Corpus. Versions: 2018-2021, Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR) (with Pola Lehmann, Jirka Lewandowski, Theres Matthieß, Nicolas Merz & Sven Regel). [Link to Data]


• The Manifesto Data Collection: South America. Versions: 2018b-2020b, Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR) (with Pola Lehmann, Theres Matthieß, Nicolas Merz, Sven Regel & Bernhard Weßels). [Link to Data]